Einer der Hauptkritikpunkte an der IPCC-Klimasichtweise ist die Marginalisierung von natürlichen Klimaantrieben. Indrani Roy von der University of Exeter veröffentlichte nun in Frontiers ein Paper, in dem für eine stärkere Berücksichtigung natürlicher Faktoren am modernen Klimwandel geworben wird. Pressemitteilung der Uni Exeter vom 10. Oktober 2018:
Role of “natural factors” on recent climate change underestimated, research shows
Pioneering new research has given a new perspective on the crucial role that ‘natural factors’ play in global warming. The study, by Dr Indrani Roy at the University of Exeter, suggests that the natural phenomena such as solar eleven-year cycles and strong volcanic explosions play important roles in recent climate change which has been ‘underestimated’.
All existing studies focus on the rise in Co2 in the atmosphere as being the main driver of global temperature rises. However, Dr Roy suggests that the role natural factors plays in climate change should be given more prominence. This study explores various possible areas where models miss important contributions due to these natural drivers. The research is published in leading journal Frontiers. Although CO2 has risen significantly since 1998, global temperature did not show any significant increase. Models however suggested a significant rise.
Dr Roy said: “So what factors are missing? It is a puzzle of recent slowdown of global warming trend or Hiatus and this study addresses that issue.” For the study, Dr Roy looked specifically at data between 1976-96, which not only covered two full strong solar cycles and two explosive volcanic eruptions during active phases of those cycles, but which also matched a period of abrupt global warming. These data were compared with other periods.
The research highlighted the important role that a dominant Central Pacific (CP) El Nino, and its associated water vapour feedback, played in global warming within the chosen period. Dr Roy suggests that the explosive volcanoes seen during this phase, which changed the sea level pressure around the North Atlantic, kick-started a ‘chain mechanism’ that played a crucial role. Dr Roy added that the change in Indian Summer Monsoons and El Nino connection during that abrupt warming period, and a subsequent recovery thereafter, can also be explained by this ‘chain mechanism’.
Addressing on Abrupt Global Warming, Warming Trend Slowdown and Related Features in Recent Decades by Dr Indrani Roy is published in Frontiers in Earth Science (https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00136)
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Ein weiterer Kritikpunkt am IPCC ist, dass wichtige verbleibende Unsicherheiten der Öffentlichkeit rigoros verschwiegen werden. Judith Curry hat diesen Punkt in einem kürzlichen Vortrag schön herausgearbeitet:
Climate uncertainty monster: What’s the worst case?
On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein. I have prepared a new talk that I presented yesterday at Rand Corp. My contact at Rand is Rob Lempert, of deepuncertainty.org fame. Very nice visit and interesting discussion. My complete presentation can be downloaded [Rand uncertainty]. This post focuses on the new material.
Ganzen Artikel mit Illustration der Vortragsfolien auf Climate Etc.
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Leipziger Volkszeitung am 10. Oktober 2018:
Super-Sommer wirbelt Leipzigs Meteorologie-Geschichte durcheinander
Der Super-Sommer hat Leipzig keinen neuen Hitze-Rekord beschert, aber die heißen Tage über 25 Grad Celsius waren so zahlreich wie noch nie seit 1830, hat Hobby-Meteorologe Peter Noack herausgefunden. […] Historische Aufzeichnungen belegen, dass es auch 1911 in Leipzig ähnlich heiß war. Damals wurden 66 „Sommertage“ und 24 „heiße Tage“ gezählt. Auch im Jahr 1947 mussten die Leipziger besonders häufig schwitzen; damals wurden 66 „Sommertage“ und 27 „heiße Tage“ gezählt. Ähnlich war es 1992 (66 „Sommertage“, 16 „heiße Tage“), 1983 (64 „Sommertage“, 15 „heiße Tage“), 2006 (62 „Sommertage“, 20 „heiße Tage“), und 1917 (61 „Sommertage“ und 10 „heiße Tage“). „Das zeigt, dass heiße Sommer in Leipzig keine Seltenheit sind“, sagt Noack. „Es war alles schon einmal da.“
Ganzen Artikel in der Leipziger Volkszeitung lesen.
